The spreading of infectious diseases in modern socio-technical systems. Comment on ''Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties'' by Gui-Quan Sun et al

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The Scaling of Human Contacts in Reaction-Diffusion Processes on Heterogeneous Metapopulation Networks

We present new empirical evidence, based on millions of interactions on Twitter, confirming that human contacts scale with population sizes. We integrate such observations into a reaction-diffusion metapopulation framework providing an analytical expression for the global invasion threshold of a contagion process. Remarkably, the scaling of human contacts is found to facilitate the spreading dynamics. Our results show that the scaling properties of human interactions can significantly affect dynamical processes mediated by human contacts such as the spread of diseases, and ideas

Contrasting effects of strong ties on SIR and SIS processes in temporal networks

Most real networks are characterized by connectivity patterns that evolve in time following complex, non-Markovian, dynamics. Here we investigate the impact of this ubiquitous feature by studying the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic models on activity driven networks with and without memory (i.e., Markovian and non-Markovian). We find that memory inhibits the spreading process in SIR models by shifting the epidemic threshold to larger values and reducing the final fraction of recovered nodes. In SIS processes instead, memory reduces the epidemic threshold and, for a wide range of diseases' parameters, increases the fraction of nodes affected by the disease in the endemic state. The heterogeneity in tie strengths, and the frequent repetition of strong ties it entails, allows in fact less virulent SIS-like diseases to survive in tightly connected local clusters that serve as reservoir for the virus. We validate this picture by studying both processes on two real temporal networks

Modelling opinion dynamics in the age of algorithmic personalisation

Modern technology has drastically changed the way we interact and consume information. For example, online social platforms allow for seamless communication exchanges at an unprecedented scale. However, we are still bounded by cognitive and temporal constraints. Our attention is limited and extremely valuable. Algorithmic personalisation has become a standard approach to tackle the information overload problem. As result, the exposure to our friends' opinions and our perception about important issues might be distorted. However, the effects of algorithmic gatekeeping on our hyper-connected society are poorly understood. Here, we devise an opinion dynamics model where individuals are connected through a social network and adopt opinions as function of the view points they are exposed to. We apply various filtering algorithms that select the opinions shown to each user i) at random ii) considering time ordering or iii) its current opinion. Furthermore, we investigate the interplay between such mechanisms and crucial features of real networks. We found that algorithmic filtering might influence opinions' share and distributions, especially in case information is biased towards the current opinion of each user. These effects are reinforced in networks featuring topological and spatial correlations where echo chambers and polarisation emerge. Conversely, heterogeneity in connectivity patterns reduces such tendency. We consider also a scenario where one opinion, through nudging, is centrally pushed to all users. Interestingly, even minimal nudging is able to change the status quo moving it towards the desired view point. Our findings suggest that simple filtering algorithms might be powerful tools to regulate opinion dynamics taking place on social networks

Committed activists and the reshaping of status-quo social consensus

The role of committed minorities in shaping public opinion has been recently addressed with the help of multiagent models. However, previous studies focused on homogeneous populations where zealots stand out only for their stubbornness. Here we consider the more general case in which individuals are characterized by different propensities to communicate. In particular, we correlate commitment with a higher tendency to push an opinion, acknowledging the fact that individuals with unwavering dedication to a cause are also more active in their attempts to promote their message. We show that these activists are not only more efficient in spreading their message but that their efforts require an order of magnitude fewer individuals than a randomly selected committed minority to bring the population over to a new consensus. Finally, we address the role of communities, showing that partisan divisions in the society can make it harder for committed individuals to flip the status-quo social consensus

Characterizing scientific production and consumption in physics

We analyze the entire publication database of the American Physical Society generating longitudinal (50 years) citation networks geolocalized at the level of single urban areas. We define the knowledge diffusion proxy, and scientific production ranking algorithms to capture the spatio-temporal dynamics of Physics knowledge worldwide. By using the knowledge diffusion proxy we identify the key cities in the production and consumption of knowledge in Physics as a function of time. The results from the scientific production ranking algorithm allow us to characterize the top cities for scholarly research in Physics. Although we focus on a single dataset concerning a specific field, the methodology presented here opens the path to comparative studies of the dynamics of knowledge across disciplines and research areas

The scaling of human contacts and epidemic processes in metapopulation networks

We study the dynamics of reaction-diffusion processes on heterogeneous metapopulation networks where interaction rates scale with subpopulation sizes. We first present new empirical evidence, based on the analysis of the interactions of 13 million users on Twitter, that supports the scaling of human interactions with population size with an exponent γ ranging between 1.11 and 1.21, as observed in recent studies based on mobile phone data. We then integrate such observations into a reaction- diffusion metapopulation framework. We provide an explicit analytical expression for the global invasion threshold which sets a critical value of the diffusion rate below which a contagion process is not able to spread to a macroscopic fraction of the system. In particular, we consider the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered epidemic model. Interestingly, the scaling of human contacts is found to facilitate the spreading dynamics. This behavior is enhanced by increasing heterogeneities in the mobility flows coupling the subpopulations. Our results show that the scaling properties of human interactions can significantly affect dynamical processes mediated by human contacts such as the spread of diseases, ideas and behaviors

Spectral centrality measures in complex networks

Complex networks are characterized by heterogeneous distributions of the degree of nodes, which produce a large diversification of the roles of the nodes within the network. Several centrality measures have been introduced to rank nodes based on their topological importance within a graph. Here we review and compare centrality measures based on spectral properties of graph matrices. We shall focus on PageRank, eigenvector centrality and the hub/authority scores of HITS. We derive simple relations between the measures and the (in)degree of the nodes, in some limits. We also compare the rankings obtained with different centrality measures.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, 5 tables. Final version published in Physical Review

Collective Response to Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Reddit and Wikipedia: Mixed-Methods Analysis

Background: The exposure and consumption of information during epidemic outbreaks may alter people’s risk perception and trigger behavioral changes, which can ultimately affect the evolution of the disease. It is thus of utmost importance to map the dissemination of information by mainstream media outlets and the public response to this information. However, our understanding of this exposure-response dynamic during the COVID-19 pandemic is still limited. Objective: The goal of this study is to characterize the media coverage and collective internet response to the COVID-19 pandemic in four countries: Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada. Methods: We collected a heterogeneous data set including 227,768 web-based news articles and 13,448 YouTube videos published by mainstream media outlets, 107,898 user posts and 3,829,309 comments on the social media platform Reddit, and 278,456,892 views of COVID-19–related Wikipedia pages. To analyze the relationship between media coverage, epidemic progression, and users’ collective web-based response, we considered a linear regression model that predicts the public response for each country given the amount of news exposure. We also applied topic modelling to the data set using nonnegative matrix factorization. Results: Our results show that public attention, quantified as user activity on Reddit and active searches on Wikipedia pages, is mainly driven by media coverage; meanwhile, this activity declines rapidly while news exposure and COVID-19 incidence remain high. Furthermore, using an unsupervised, dynamic topic modeling approach, we show that while the levels of attention dedicated to different topics by media outlets and internet users are in good accordance, interesting deviations emerge in their temporal patterns. Conclusions: Overall, our findings offer an additional key to interpret public perception and response to the current global health emergency and raise questions about the effects of attention saturation on people’s collective awareness and risk perception and thus on their tendencies toward behavioral change.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version